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Since the Hamas attack triggered the devastating IDF reprisal, the entire region has been sliding ever closer to the abyss
A year ago, at around 6:30am local time on October 7, 2023, Palestinian groups launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, during which an estimated 2,500 to over 5,000 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel.
Following this barrage, more than 2,000 armed fighters infiltrated Israeli territory by land, sea, and air, targeting kibbutzim and the city of Sderot. Around 1,200 Israelis were killed, including hundreds of people at a music festival, and 242 people were taken hostage.
In response, the Israeli government, for the first time since 1973, declared martial law and launched Operation Iron Swords in Gaza. This day marked the beginning of a new phase of escalation in the long-standing Middle Eastern conflict, which has since spread beyond Israel and Palestine, dividing the global community into supporters and critics of Israeli policies.
Divided Israel
By October 7, 2024, on the anniversary of the tragic events, the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel’s financial and cultural center, were adorned with Israeli flags bearing the Hebrew words ‘Beyachad Nenatze’ach’ (together we will win).
Yet, the reality on the ground told a more complex story. Families of hostages held in Gaza called for negotiations to secure their release, even if it meant ending the war with Hamas, while posters of fallen soldiers demanded the continuation of the war until “complete victory.”
This split in Israeli society reflects a profound dilemma. Should the release of hostages come at the cost of ending the war?
Even before October 7, Israeli society was deeply divided, with months of protests against the government’s proposed judicial reforms. Major cities were gripped by mass demonstrations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government. His opponents accused him of attempting to dismantle Israel’s democratic political structure and turn the country into his personal stronghold, with himself as a de facto monarch.
After the October 7 tragedy, Israeli society fell into deep shock, and many felt that the government was failing to manage the crisis. In response, emergency civil centers were set up to handle everything from raising funds for the army to providing shelter for thousands of people who had been displaced from their homes. These efforts even extended to replacing immigrant laborers on farms who had left due to the war.
In many ways, civil society and private initiatives took on roles that the government could not fulfill, believing that only they could truly support the country. At first, it seemed as though Israeli society was united in its grief.
A year later, that sense of unity has largely dissipated. Old divisions have resurfaced, now centered on the war with Hamas and the fate of the hostages held in Gaza. Support for deals to release the hostages has become synonymous with opposition to Netanyahu’s handling of the war.
Families of the hostages are increasingly attacked, both on social media and in real life, subjected to insults and even physical assaults. They are labeled ‘smolanim’ (leftists), a term that has long carried derogatory connotations in certain parts of Israeli society. For many supporters of Israel’s far-right government, the campaign for the hostages’ release is viewed as a tool used by the opposition to undermine Netanyahu’s administration.
Amid the deadliest terrorist attack in Israel’s history and the ensuing war with Hamas, the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah in the north, and tens of thousands of displaced Israelis, a crucial question arises: Do Israelis feel any safer?
According to a survey conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies in September 2024, 31% of Israelis reported feeling ‘low’ or ‘very low’ levels of security, while only 21% felt ‘high’ or ‘very high’ levels of safety.
Even before the events of October 7, the emigration rate from Israel had been rising. According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, more citizens left the country in 2023 than in the previous year, and preliminary data for 2024 indicates a further increase in emigration.
Despite the societal rift, Tel Aviv’s streets remain covered with stickers bearing the faces, names, and stories of those who perished on October 7 or during the ongoing war in Gaza. Perhaps these stories are the last thread holding together an increasingly divided Israeli society in these challenging times.
Division abroad: How has international support for Israel changed?
A year after the events of October 7, 2023, international support for Israel has significantly shifted, creating divisions among key global players. While many countries initially expressed solidarity with Israel in its fight against Hamas, as the conflict escalated and civilian casualties rose, the situation became increasingly tense in Europe, Africa, and other parts of the world.
The US remains Israel’s main ally, with President Joe Biden repeatedly emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense. However, even within the US, protests against the Israeli military operations began to emerge, particularly on university campuses and among left-wing activists, weakening public support somewhat.
In Europe, attitudes toward the conflict also evolved. While countries such as Germany, France, and the UK supported Israel at the outset, the escalating violence drew criticism from European leaders. Several EU countries, including Norway, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia, recognized Palestine as an independent state, intensifying pressure on Israel. Mass protests in support of the Palestinians also took place in London, Berlin, Paris, and other cities across Europe.
One of the most notable international reactions was a lawsuit filed by South Africa against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
On December 29, 2023, South Africa lodged a complaint accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza, based on the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
This lawsuit also called for an end to military action in Gaza and demanded access to humanitarian aid. It is important to note that South Africa acted under the principle of ‘erga omnes partes’, allowing it to file the complaint even though it was not directly affected by the conflict – but as a signatory to the Genocide Convention, it has an obligation to prevent genocide.
South Africa also withdrew its diplomats from Tel Aviv and organized protests at home, where anti-apartheid sentiments historically run strong. The government drew parallels between the fight against apartheid and the Palestinian struggle, which further fueled anti-Israel sentiments.
Several countries, including Turkey, Spain, Mexico, and Libya, have indicated their intent to join South Africa’s lawsuit, underscoring the growing global support for this legal process.
Russia has taken a cautious and balanced stance since the events of October 7, 2023. President Vladimir Putin condemned terrorism and expressed condolences over the Israeli victims, but emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution. Moscow, which traditionally supports the Palestinians’ right to self-determination, reiterated the importance of a two-state solution under international law and called for an end to the violence and the start of negotiations.
Protests against Israel’s actions took place globally, from Europe and North America to the Middle East and Asia. In countries with large Muslim populations, such as Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey, protests were particularly widespread. These demonstrations called for sanctions against Israel and demanded stronger international action to protect Palestinians.
On the brink of total war
A year after the events of October 7, 2023, the conflict between Israel and Palestinian factions has not only failed to subside but has also significantly expanded, engulfing the entire Middle East region. The ongoing military operations in Gaza, Israel’s reluctance to engage in negotiations with Hamas, and the recent assassinations of senior Hezbollah leaders and other radical figures have escalated tensions, bringing the region closer to a full-scale war.
Despite numerous international calls for a ceasefire and hostage exchange, Israel continues its war with Hamas, showing little interest in diplomatic negotiations. Lengthy and complex negotiations over hostages, in which Hamas proposed various exchange options while Israel delayed decisions or imposed additional conditions, serve as an example.
US officials have frequently criticized Israel for dragging out negotiations, and members of the Biden administration have expressed frustration, stating that Netanyahu’s hardline stance complicates diplomatic efforts for a truce and increases the risk of conflict escalation.
In 2024, Israel intensified its military operations beyond Gaza. One of the most significant events was the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, one of the leaders of Hamas, along with Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. These assassinations provoked immediate retaliation from Lebanon and Iran. Israel has already been targeted by direct missile strikes from Iran twice, heightening fears of an imminent direct military confrontation between the two nations.
Alongside operations against Hamas, Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon, encountering fierce resistance from Hezbollah. The fighting has resulted in substantial losses on both sides, including civilian casualties. In this context, the international community is increasingly concerned about the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iran, which could trigger a full-scale regional war involving the US.
The world watches with bated breath as analysts warn that an Israeli strike on Iran could drag the US into a Middle Eastern conflict. Washington is unprepared for such a scenario, but its alliance with Israel complicates its diplomatic maneuvering. US officials have repeatedly called on Israel to exercise restraint, understanding that escalation could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.
Netanyahu faces a daunting challenge – consolidating power at home while diminishing the influence of the opposition, which criticizes him for failing to protect citizens from terrorist attacks. Israel’s internal instability, driven by political divisions, is compounded by external threats from Iran and its proxy groups across the ‘Axis of Resistance’.
Netanyahu’s strategy aims to address two key issues. On the one hand, he seeks to weaken Iranian influence in the region, viewing Iran as the primary threat to Israel’s security. On the other hand, he strives to maintain control over the domestic political situation, using military operations as a way to strengthen his hold on power and counter opposition criticism.
A year after the start of the conflict, the situation in the Middle East has only deteriorated. The military operations in Gaza, the invasion of Lebanon, and the growing tensions with Iran pose the threat of a full-scale regional conflict that could extend beyond the Middle East, potentially involving major global powers, including the US.
Despite diplomatic efforts, the conflict continues to expand, and its consequences could be devastating for the entire region. Many believe that no one truly wants war – Iran shows restraint, the US and other players seek diplomatic solutions, and it seems that only Netanyahu and his circle are willing to go to any lengths to achieve their goals.
