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The bloc is paralyzed by fear of the US, and everyone knows it
The uproar over the transatlantic rift on display at the recent Munich Security Conference will linger for some time. We will see more statements from Western European politicians, editorials in British newspapers urging Europe to stand up to Washington, and appeals for strategic autonomy. Yet, despite all this sound and fury, nothing fundamental is likely to change in US-EU relations.
The real issue at hand isn’t whether Washington will abandon Europe. That is a false pretext – a smokescreen crafted by EU leaders to justify continued submission to their American patrons. Europe remains at the center of global politics not because of its own strength, but because it sits at the fault line of the US-Russia confrontation. The presence of American nuclear weapons on European soil, the thousands of US troops stationed across the continent, and the continued relevance of NATO underscore one simple fact: Washington has no intention of loosening its grip on its European allies.
The behavior of today’s European politicians is best captured by the old American folk tale of Brother Rabbit. Cornered by Brother Fox, the rabbit pleads, “Do anything, but don’t throw me into the thorn bush!” –knowing full well that the thorn bush is his safest refuge. European leaders perform similar theatrics, lamenting the prospect of being abandoned by the US, knowing full well that Washington will never truly leave.
The European bluff: Fear as a strategy
From Berlin to Paris, Rome to Madrid, Western European leaders publicly decry the risks of American disengagement. But this is grand theater. Their real fear is not Russia – it is the possibility that Washington might actually listen to their complaints and allow them to fend for themselves.
The truth is that none of the major EU states – Germany, France, or Italy – wants to engage in a war with Russia. Their citizens have no appetite for it. Unlike in 1914 or 1939, there is no mass mobilization of the public for conflict. Even Poland, despite its aggressive rhetoric, knows that its electorate has no stomach for prolonged military entanglement. A few thousand mercenaries may be sent to Ukraine, but they will not change the tide of war.
The exception to this pragmatism lies in the small, vocal anti-Russian states – the Baltic republics, the Czech Republic, and some Scandinavian governments. But if Germany and France ever decided to pursue real diplomacy with Moscow, the concerns of these minor players would be irrelevant. Historically, the Nord Stream gas pipelines were constructed despite worsening Russia-EU relations because Berlin’s economic interests dictated it. The same could happen again, given the right conditions.
The true fear: A Franco-German rapprochement with Moscow
The greatest fear among Europe’s most ardent Atlanticists – especially in the Baltic states and Kiev – is not Russia. It is the potential for Germany and France to strike a separate deal with Moscow. Such a scenario would relegate them to irrelevance, a prospect that terrifies them more than anything else.
But Western Europe’s ability to chart an independent course is constrained by American influence. The US maintains its dominance through military presence, economic penetration, and intelligence operations in key European countries. Germany and Italy, both defeated in World War II, remain under de facto American oversight. As long as this reality persists, Europe will remain geopolitically captive – whether it wants to be or not.
Donald Trump’s representatives, rather than signaling a strategic retreat, have simply mocked EU leaders for their dependency. And yet, these same European politicians continue to toe the American line, repeating tired narratives about the Russian threat and the need to defend Ukraine. Why? Because they fear the consequences of American retaliation.
For nearly 80 years, Western European leaders have understood that stepping out of line with Washington carries consequences. When Germany and France opposed the Iraq War in 2003, the backlash from the US was swift and severe. European leaders remember this well. They know that any serious challenge to American dominance will not go unpunished.
This pattern has repeated itself in recent years. While the EU followed Washington’s lead on sanctions against Russia, the economic damage primarily hurt European industries, not American ones. Yet European leaders did little to resist these policies, fearing the repercussions of defying their transatlantic overlord.
A continent without leaders
Beyond fear, another factor paralyzing Western Europe is its own lack of political leadership. The European elite has been replaced by career bureaucrats with no vision beyond maintaining the status quo. The new generation of politicians lacks the strategic foresight of their predecessors. Instead of statesmen like De Gaulle, Adenauer, or Mitterrand, the EU is now governed by administrators who prioritize their personal post-politics career prospects – often within American corporate or institutional structures.
This is particularly true in smaller states like Finland or the Baltic republics, where politicians desperately seek Washington’s favor. These countries act as internal saboteurs within the EU, obstructing any serious efforts by Germany or France to restore pragmatic relations with Moscow.
If Europe were truly left to its own devices, Germany and France would likely pursue a more rational approach: striking a deal with Russia, accommodating Polish ambitions to maintain regional stability, and prioritizing economic ties over ideological battles. But as long as US control remains intact, this remains a distant prospect.
The West knows Russia — but fears Washington
Despite decades of anti-Russian rhetoric, no serious EU policymaker truly fears Russia. Western Europe has dealt with Russia for over 500 years. European elites understand Russia’s strengths and weaknesses, and they trust in Moscow’s pragmatic approach to diplomacy. What they fear is not the Kremlin, but the unpredictable, coercive force of Washington.
At present, there is no real movement toward breaking free from American influence. The idea of a sovereign Western European strategic doctrine remains theoretical at best. Trump’s America First policy will continue to shake the transatlantic relationship, but for now, the core structures of American control over Europe remain firmly in place.
Until this changes, the EU will remain paralyzed — not by Russia, but by its own submission to Washington.
This article was first published by ‘Vzglyad’ newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT team.
